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?Update Apr 30, 2024: Almost X flare!
???It is always exciting when a sunspot region lives up to its potential. AR3654 has just done that. At 23:23 UTC on Apr 30, the region released a flare that almost made it to X with an M9.5.
?MORE at EarthSky: https://t.co/xD29wLfm4e pic.twitter.com/efGC1G2Rn8
— Dr. C. Alex Young (@TheSunToday) May 1, 2024
It’s always exciting when a sunspot region lives up to its potential. And AR3654 has done just that. At 23:23 UTC on April 30, the region released a flare that almost made it to X-class. It was just shy of an X flare, peaking at M9.5. It also produced an R2 radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean west of Hawaii. We said this morning that it had the potential for another M and maybe even an X flare. And it did not disappoint. Given that it just produced a decent-sized flare, the probability of another such event is higher.
Stay tuned; there may be more tonight! Otherwise, we will report tomorrow morning.
The EarthSky sun news team created this 1-minute video summary for you. See the 4 coronal holes!
Today’s top story: Excitement is brewing on our star, with sunspot region AR3654 looking like a potential X flare producer. This giant sunspot region has continued to grow over the past day, and its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity indicates that it could produce some seriously large solar flares. Bring it on, AR3654! We’ve not seen an X flare since March 28, when our old friend AR3615 gave us an X1.1. AR3654 has a few days to bring the action before it rotates out of view over the southwestern limb (edge). Before it does, be sure to take a look at this sunspot through safe solar viewing or eclipse glasses – it’s big enough that you don’t need any magnification aid. What you won’t be able to see are the four coronal holes that are currently adding to the excitement on our sun. These are regions where the sun’s magnetic field opens into space, letting fast solar wind pour out. Since this wind can disturb Earth’s magnetic field, these coronal holes are giving us an increased chance for auroras at the moment. So, all we need now for an amazing auroral display is an Earth-bound coronal mass ejection (CME) from a big flare… We’re looking at you, AR3654!
Last 24 hours: Sun activity has been moderate over the past day with the production of an isolated M flare. Between 11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today, the sun released 13 solar flares: 12 C flares and one M flare. The largest event was an M1.6 flare from AR3654 at 1:14 UTC on April 30. The flare produced an R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean at the boundaries of the Philippine Sea. The lead flare producer of the period was AR3654 with nine flares, including the M flare. There are currently five regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun, including newcomers AR3661 and AR3662.
Next 24 hours: The chance for C flares is 99%. The chance for M flares is 35%. The chance for an X flare is 5%.
Next expected CME: Modeling and analysis of an eruption in the northwest on April 29 at 9:09 UTC showed a coronal mass ejection (CME) with a potentially Earth-directed component. The impact would occur early on May 3. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery during the past day.
Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on April 30). Quiet-to-unsettled levels are anticipated for the rest of today. Quiet-to-active levels are anticipated on May 1 due to the influence of high-speed solar wind from the coronal holes combined with the potential effects of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days. Clear skies to you, aurora-watchers!
? ? Sun news for April 29, 2024: Giant sunspot continues to grow
? ? Sunspot region AR3654 continues to increase in size and maintain its magnetic complexity. We expected more from the region, and it did not disappoint.
? MORE at EarthSky: https://t.co/xD29wLfm4e pic.twitter.com/WKei6mFYrP
— Dr. C. Alex Young (@TheSunToday) April 29, 2024
Sunspot region AR3654 continues to increase in size and maintain its magnetic complexity. We expected more to come from the region, and it did not disappoint. It fired off 15 of the observation period’s 17 flares, including two M flares. The region also grew from an area twice that of Earth to more than three times that of Earth. With your eclipse glasses, you should be able to glimpse it from Earth. AR3654 is located near the equator in the western hemisphere. This means that if the region erupts, there is a greater chance for solar stuff to head our way, especially solar energetic particles. Will AR3654 send more activity our way? Stay tuned.
Last 24 hours: Solar activity is moderate, with two M flares over the past 24 hours from AR3654. The sun released 17 solar flares15 C flares and two M flares. The largest event, an M3.7 flare, happened at 00:54 UTC on April 29. The second event, an M2.5 flare, happened at 00:33 on April 29. Both M flares produced an R1 (minor) radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean. AR3654 grew to an area three times that of Earth over the current observation period, 11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today. The region has maintained its delta region. Two filaments erupted from the northeast and southeast limbs (edges) around 6:52 UTC. There are six regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun now.
Sunspot region AR3654 doubled in size over the past day. It’s now about 2 planets in diameter. With your eclipse glasses, you might be able to glimpse it from Earth. At its location near the center of the sun’s visible disk, it could give us some excitement over the next few days. That’s because, besides growing in size, AR3654 has increased in magnetic complexity, indicating a potential for more flares. It already produced two M flares over the past day. Will we see more? Plus, given AR3654’s location on the sun’s visible disk, any eruptions will have a chance of sending sun-stuff our way. And that could mean more auroras in the days ahead. The region appears to have produced a small coronal mass ejection at around 11 UTC on April 27. That event could impact Earth in mid-to-late May 1. Stay tuned.
Last 24 hours: Solar activity is moderate, with two M flares over the past 24 hours from AR3654. The largest event, an impulsive M3.0 flare, happened at 21:29 UTC on April 27. The second event, an M2.1 flare, happened at 12:33 on April 27. AR3654 is now the largest sunspot region on the sun’s disk. Overall, flare production was lower over the past day (11 UTC yesterday to 11 UTC today), with two M and five C flares. A new Region, 3660, got its number. There are nine regions on the Earth-facing side of the sun now.
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Bottom line: Sun news UPDATE for April 30, 2024. Almost X flare! AR3654 produced an M9.5 flare – just shy of an X flare – living up to its potential.
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