UPDATE 1-US natgas prices hold near 8-month high on drop in daily output – Yahoo Finance

(Adds latest prices) Oct 11 (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures held close to an eight-month high as a bullish drop in daily output and rising exports offset bearish forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. After rising for six days in a row to an eight-month high earlier this week, front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange eased 0.5 cent, or 0.1%, to settle at $3.377 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest since Jan. 23 for a third day in a row. Despite the small decline, the front-month remained in technically overbought territory, with a relative strength index over 70, for a fifth day in a row for the first time since July 2022. In the U.S. spot market, next-day gas for Wednesday at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana rose to $3.34 per mmBtu, its highest since January 2023 for a third day in a row. The spot market, however, will continue to weigh on futures so long as next-day prices remain below the front-month. Next-day prices have closed below the front-month for 159 of the 194 trading days so far this year, according to data from financial firm LSEG. Exxon Mobil agreed to buy U.S. rival Pioneer Natural Resources in an all-stock deal valued at $59.5 billion that would make it the biggest producer in the Permian shale, the largest U.S. oil field, and secure a decade of low-cost production. Global gas demand, meanwhile, will experience slower growth to 2026 after peaking in mature markets like Europe and North America, according to an International Energy Agency (IEA) outlook. In the U.S., gas production and demand will both rise to record highs in 2023, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 102.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, up from 102.6 bcfd in September, but still below the monthly record of 103.1 bcfd in July. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 1.9 bcfd over the past two days to a preliminary one-week low of 102.4 bcfd on Wednesday. Energy traders noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day. With seasonally cooler weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 94.5 bcfd this week to 95.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. Pipeline exports to Mexico held near 7.2 bcfd so far in October, the same as the monthly record high hit in September. Analysts expect exports to Mexico to rise even higher in coming months once New Fortress Energy's plant in Altamira starts pulling in U.S. gas to turn into liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.9 bcfd so far in October, up from 12.6 bcfd in September, but still well below the record high of 14.0 bcfd in April. Energy traders said they expect total LNG feedgas to rise to near record levels over the next week or so once Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point facility in Maryland exits a maintenance outage. Cove Point shut around Sept. 20. Analysts at LSEG have said the plant usually shuts for about three weeks of maintenance each autumn. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Oct 6 Sep 29 Actual Oct 6 average Forecast Oct 6 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 94 86 125 93 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,539 3,445 3,213 3,366 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 5.1% 5.3% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 3.45 3.38 6.08 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 14.91 15.30 38.37 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 14.25 14.16 32.98 34.11 8.95 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 120 119 128 114 136 U.S. GFS CDDs 31 35 44 53 42 U.S. GFS TDDs 151 154 172 167 178 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 102.2 103.5 1037 99.4 93.1 U.S. Imports from Canada 6.7 6.9 6.4 6.0 7.8 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 108.9 110.4 110.0 105.4 101.0 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.5 1.5 1.4 2.4 2.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico 7.2 7.1 7.2 5.5 5.6 U.S. LNG Exports 12.6 13.0 13.1 10.9 7.1 U.S. Commercial 5.0 6.1 6.9 6.2 7.0 U.S. Residential 4.2 6.5 7.9 6.7 7.5 U.S. Power Plant 35.4 30.8 29.4 31.6 30.1 U.S. Industrial 21.7 22.3 22.6 22.1 22.1 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 73.3 73.0 74.1 73.6 73.9 Total U.S. Demand 94.6 94.5 95.8 92.4 88.8 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day % 2023 2022 2021 % of Normal of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 94 95 83 107 81 Jan-Jul 91 91 77 102 79 Oct-Sep 91 91 76 103 81 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Oct 13 Oct 6 Sep 29 Sep 22 Sep 15 Wind 8 11 8 8 5 Solar 5 4 4 4 4 Hydro 5 5 5 5 5 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 41 42 44 43 46 Coal 17 16 17 17 18 Nuclear 22 19 20 20 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 3.34 3.30 Transco Z6 New York 1.32 1.30 PG&E Citygate 5.90 5.69 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.25 1.23 Chicago Citygate 2.53 2.50 Algonquin Citygate 1.75 1.46 SoCal Citygate 6.40 6.75 Waha Hub 2.40 2.49 AECO 1.75 1.79 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day New England 31.50 28.50 PJM West 38.00 42.50 Ercot North 24.50 27.25 Mid C 54.00 51.50 Palo Verde 35.50 40.50 SP-15 39.25 39.00 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by Jonathan Oatis)
Covid-19 product sales are expected to dry up. Pfizer said Friday it is cutting its guidance for the year by $9 billion due to changes in expected sales of its Covid-19 vaccine and treatment Paxlovid. Pfizer lowered its guidance to between $58 billion and $61 billion from between $67 billion and $70 billion.
(Reuters) -Pfizer on Friday slashed its full-year revenue forecast by 13% and said it will cut $3.5 billion worth of jobs and expenses due to lower-than-expected sales of its COVID-19 vaccine and treatment. Pfizer earned record revenue in 2021 and 2022, topping $100 billion last year, after developing its vaccine Comirnaty with German partner BioNTech SE and antiviral treatment Paxlovid on its own. But annual vaccination rates have dropped sharply since 2021 and demand for treatments has dipped as population-wide immunity has increased from vaccines and prior infections.
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