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When will the iPhone 15 drop?
“When will the iPhone 15 drop?” is the question of the hour. The iPhone 15 release date is set to be unveiled soon, and although Apple has not officially confirmed when we’ll be getting our hands on these new smartphones, we can make predictions based on previous launch dates.
Hardware companies are rarely inconsistent with launch dates, and Apple is no exception. Yearly products of this kind often need to release in a tight window, otherwise, it’ll be hard to sell people on your newly released product if a new one comes out too close to the previous model. And based on the iPhone release dates for the past several years, we have a prediction on when the iPhone 15 is coming out.
We conjecture that the Apple September event will be held on Sept. 12 or Sept. 13, also that the iPhone 15 will be available to preorder from Sept. 15 and have a release date of Sept. 22. Read on to read our logic behind our educated guess.
The iPhone 15 series will likely be unveiled this September, as Apple consistently holds its fall event during that month. You can trace this occurrence all the way back to 2007, and since 2012, the company has not missed a year.
But iPhone launch dates are nowhere near as consistent. The only complete pattern is that they have been released in the fall ever since the iPhone 4S (excluding SE models), which came out all the way back in 2011. Otherwise, specific months can be a bit jumbled, but from analyzing previous dates, it’s clear that Apple favors one specific month over others.
As the table indicates above, Apple adores September. If we disregard the iPhone 12’s October launch (a result of COVID-19 delays) and iPhone X’s November release (delayed due to issues with original Face ID hardware), a majority of the previous six iPhone models were released within a ten-day span from Sept. 14 to Sept. 24. Unless Apple runs into a hardware production issue that pushes it to October or November, we’re expecting this trend to continue.
Because Apple is consistent with launch dates for the most part, the new iPhone series will almost certainly launch this fall, with an even higher probability of the month being September. But as you can see from the table, Apple launches new iPhone models on Fridays.
There are only two Fridays that fall within that aforementioned ten-day span this year, and those are Sept. 15 and Sept. 22. It’s also possible it could be on Sept. 29, but Apple has never launched an iPhone model that late into the month.
That leaves us with Sept. 15 and Sept. 22 as our prime suspects, and it’s pretty much a coin toss between the two. Apple seems to favor slightly later dates in September, so we’re going to wager the iPhone 15 launches on Sept. 22 of this year. Apple also frequently holds its September events on the Tuesday or Wednesday of the week prior to the launch, which would fall on the 12th or 13th.
Lock it in — Laptop Mag predicts that Apple’s September event will be held on Sept. 12 or 13, with the iPhone 15 series launching on Sept. 22.
In early August, 9to5Mac reported that “sources familiar with the matter” claimed that the September Apple event is taking place on September 13, with the company preparing for the iPhone 15’s launch on Sept. 22. If this is true, it would make our prediction correct.
Well-connected Apple leaker and Bloomberg journalist Mark Guman corroborated this rumor in his Power-On newsletter, prognosticating that the iPhone 15 is expected to be unveiled on Sept. 12 or 13. Gurman added that he expects the iPhone 15 to officially go on sale on Sept. 22.
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Self-described art critic and unabashedly pretentious, Momo finds joy in impassioned ramblings about her closeness to video games. She has a bachelor’s degree in Journalism & Media Studies from Brooklyn College and five years of experience in entertainment journalism. Momo is a stalwart defender of the importance found in subjectivity and spends most days overwhelmed with excitement for the past, present and future of gaming. When she isn’t writing or playing Dark Souls, she can be found eating chicken fettuccine alfredo and watching anime.
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