GBP/USD Analysis Today 02/7: Gains Remain Limited (Chart) –

GBP/USD Analysis Today 02/7: Gains Remain Limited (graph)
According to reliable trading platforms, the pound received support from the rise in European assets as investors expressed relief that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party is unlikely to win an absolute majority in the National Assembly after the weekend’s elections. This came after her party performed less than expected (~33% of the vote) compared to what opinion polls indicated it would achieve (~36%). Overall, a hung legislature is the likely outcome of Sunday’s second round of voting, especially as the far left and centrist parties are willing to cooperate on an anti-Le Pen voting strategy. The end result is that European assets are on the rise, including the pound.

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     Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:

    Technically, GBP/USD has moved above its 9-day moving average, the first real positive technical development we have seen for the pair since mid-June. This could signal some near-term gains, with 1.27 a potential target. Also, the RSI is at 50 (neutral) but has turned higher again (positive development in the coming hours). Overall, we note that GBP/USD has also broken above its 50-day moving average, which has turned into a source of resistance last week.
    A daily close above this level (1.2654) could indicate that a more constructive technical outlook is starting to form again. Recently, a rise in the pound could put it on track towards the midpoint forecast by major global investment banks.
    Looking at the economic calendar, several releases and speeches this week could offer sterling volatility. The US ISM manufacturing survey is due out on Monday, which could provide further signs of an economic slowdown. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the European Central Bank conference in Sintra, Portugal on Tuesday. Markets will be keen to hear his updated views on the possibility of a Fed rate cut in 2024.
    This theme continues into the middle of the week when the Fed releases its minutes of its June 11-12 policy meeting. Thus, this is expected to provide more color for markets on the very important question of interest rates. Also, Wednesday sees the release of the ISM PMI services survey, another potential market-moving release. As a reminder, if the market raises its expectations of a September rate cut after this data and appearances, the dollar could weaken. Any disappointments would strengthen the dollar. Currently, the market is pricing in a 56% chance of a September rate cut.
    Furthermore, the highlight of the week will be the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. The headline number is expected to come in at 180,000, down from 272,000. Also, average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in June.
    The UK election on Thursday is a low-risk event at this stage as the odds of a Labor win are very high and we have seen no shift in the polls to suggest that this will not be the outcome. The first major event to watch is the exit poll due at 10pm on Thursday night. Moreover, this has been a very accurate indicator in recent history. However, the surprise would be a strong Conservative showing which would lead to a ‘hung parliament’ where no party can command a majority on its own. Consequently, this would lead to a weaker pound as markets contemplate a period of uncertainty. Ultimately, we expect volatility to be short-lived as there is nothing radical in the spending and tax plans of Labor, the Conservatives or the Lib Dems.
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