Beryl remains a major hurricane, Tropical Storm Chris makes landfall & weakens – KTRK-TV

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Tropical Storm Chris moved onto land in Mexico this morning and has weakened considerably. Beryl also made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane this morning around 10:10 am in the Windward Islands bringing 150 mph sustained winds. Beryl is expected to weaken a bit as it moves northwest through the Caribbean as it encounters more wind shear. It is expected to impact Jamaica by Wednesday and the Yucatan Peninsula by the end of the work week. We should know a lot more about where this system will go once we see how it interacts with Jamaica. IF it moves into the southern Gulf, it wouldn't do so until this weekend.
Hurricane Beryl re-strengthens to a category 4 hurricane after under going an eyewall replacement cycle overnight. This still dangerous and powerful storm will bring life-threatening flooding rain along with strong, damaging winds and coastal flooding to the majority of Caribbean Islands as it tracks west-northwest this week. Beryl is forecast to lose wind intensity later in the week over the western Caribbean as it encounters higher wind shear. It could make landfall over the Yucatan peninsula on Thursday. From there, still too much uncertain as to where it will track next.
Tropical Storm Chris made landfall over eastern Mexico Monday morning. It is now a tropical depression and will continue to bring heavy rainfall inland.
A tropical wave about 1000 miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands has a medium risk for development as it tracks west in the coming days. This may be a tropical depression later this week or Tropical Storm Debby.
Beryl continues to be a category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph and peak wind gusts of 160 mph. The eye of Beryl is 10 nautical miles wide and even has mesovorticies within in, both signs of a healthy and well-formed storm. Beryl will retain it's category 4 strength as it makes landfall along the Windward Idlands Monday, leading to life-threatening flooding and potentially catastrophic wind damage. As for it's future track, Beryl is expected to remain a major hurricane as it approaches Jamaica mid-week and then could weaken slightly to either a category one or two storm by the time it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula Friday. Another landfall near Cozumel is possible Friday. Beyond that, it's difficult to place where this hurricane will be after Friday. the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center now includes the Bay of Campeche, but there's still too much uncertainty with the system's potential track as it would be in the Gulf of Mexico next weekend. In other words, it's still too early to tell if Beryl will pose a threat to the Texas coast or Houston next weekend. In the meantime, it's best to begin thinking about an travels plans you might have around the Fourth of July and thereafter, plus what you might need to do locally in Houston if a storm was headed this way.
Behind Beryl, the other tropical wave in it's wake still has a 70% chance of forming over the next 7 days.
Additionally, we now have Tropical Storm Chris in the Bay of Campeche. This will be another short-lived system as it's expected to move into Mexico Monday. The main concern is the heavy rains that could lead to flooding and mudslides in Mexico. Chris poses no threat to the Texas coast of Houston.
Hurricane Beryl is already in the record books, reaching Cat 4 strength late Sunday morning. It becomes the first June hurricane on record to reach Cat 4 strength, a feat made possible by record warm waters. The storm will impact the Windward Islands Monday as a Cat 4 storm, and continue west through the Caribbean. By midweek the storm will be near Jamaica as a major hurricane, and most forecast models bring the storm to the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday. Anyone with travel plans to the Yucatan (including Cozumel, Cancun, Playa Del Carmen, and Tulum) should monitor the weather closely. Beyond that point models are split on the eventual path, but it is possible the storm can sweep across the Yucatan and move into the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Any specific landfall projections beyond that point would be pure speculation, but we'll watch it closely as models come in to better agreement.
Behind Beryl is another potential storm with a 70% chance of developing, likely to become "Chris" in the coming days.
Closer to home in the Southwest Gulf is another area of potential development with 50% development odds, though any impacts from that system will stay well south of our area.
Beryl has strengthened to a category one hurricane Saturday afternoon with winds of 75 mph and a central pressure of 992 millibars. Beryl will continue to intensify through the weekend before making landfall along the Windward islands in the eastern Caribbean Monday as a potentially major hurricane of category three strength. Destructive hurricane force winds and life-threatening flash flooding are possibility for those islands, thus Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for islands like Grenada, Barbados and St. Vincent.
From there the hurricane will continue to track west through the Caribbean and towards the Yucatan Peninsula by the end next week. From there the future path of Beryl is still uncertain. Beryl could potentially track into the Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Campeche into the first weekend of July, but it is still too early to tell if this storm will pose any threat to the Texas coast.
There are also two other areas for potential tropical development in the coming days, and one could become the next named storm Chris. Behind Beryl there is another tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic that has a 70 percent chance of forming over the next 7 days. And then the area to watch in the Bay of Campeche has a medium, 50/50 chance of becoming a named storm before the circulation would move into Mexico next week.
Tropical Storm Beryl is poised to become the first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season by the end of the day, and is forecast to reach Cat 3 "major" hurricane status at it enters the Caribbean early next week. Anyone with travel plans in the Caribbean should stay weather aware through the week ahead. While models in the short term are in fairly good agreement about Beryl's path into the Caribbean, the long-term outlook remains less certain. At this point it is unknown if the system will enter the Gulf of Mexico or continue west in to Central America.
Another tropical wave closer to home in the southwest Gulf has a 40% chance of development, but will move in to Mexico and will not impact Southeast Texas in any way.
Tropical Depression Two is now Tropical Storm Beryl. Tropical watches will more than likely be issued for the Windward Islands on Saturday.
Tropical Depression Two has formed over the central Atlantic, and the National Hurricane Center predicts it will be a category 2 hurricane as it moves into the Caribbean Sea on Monday. Anyone with plans to vacation in the Caribbean next week should pay close attention to the forecast in the days ahead. It is too soon at this time to know if it will ever impact the Gulf of Mexico, much less Texas, but if it ever were to impact Texas, it would likely be in the July 7th – July 9th window. We'll keep you posted on its every move in the days ahead.
The tropics are looking more like late August than late June, with 3 areas of potential development we are currently monitoring. The greatest risk of development comes from Tropical Wave 95-L, which is in the open Atlantic and now has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression or named storm. It is likely to become "Beryl" over the next few days, and could end up being our first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season as it moves in to the Caribbean next week. Beyond that, models are showing a wide spread on where the storm could eventually head.
Close behind 95-L is another tropical wave following in its wake, though the odds for development on that system are at just 20%.
Lastly, closest to home is 94-L, which will be moving into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. That system will gradually turn into Mexico and will not directly impact Southeast Texas.
Tropical Wave 95-L in the open Atlantic is becoming more organized today. The National Hurricane Center now gives it a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next two days and an 80% chance of doing the same over the next week. Hurricane Hunters are now scheduled to investigate it starting on Sunday. It poses no immediate threat to Texas at this time, but it bears watching for now.
The NHC has increased development odds for a system in the open Atlantic to 70%. It will likely become our next named storm, and could become the first hurricane of the 2024 hurricane season. This potential storm is too far away to have any real specifics on its eventual location, so for now it's just a storm that we'll be watching closely.
Another area of potential development in the southern Gulf now has a 30% chance of development, but the rain and general impact of that storm will stay well south of the Houston area in Central America.
The National Hurricane Center now says the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has a 40% chance of developing over the next 7 days. The environment it will pass through in the days ahead will allow the wave to organize more, and many of our computer models are now indicating this system could be come the first hurricane of the season as it nears the Caribbean Sea.
There continue to be two waves of potential tropical development in the Atlantic. One is in the southern Caribbean and has a 20% chance of formation over the next seven days. That's when this wave is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. There is another wave that just moved off the west coast of Africa that currently in the eastern Atlantic that has a 30% chance of developing over the next seven days. The main story in the tropics is Saharan Dust, where two plumes could make it to the Texas Coast and Gulf of Mexico this weekend and next week. Saharan Dust can help limit tropical storms of hurricanes from forming.
The National Hurricane Center is now giving a new tropical wave near the coast of Africa a 20% chance of development over the next seven days. It is of no immediate concern to Texas at this time, and we've got plenty of time to watch it over the next two weeks.
We are watching two features in the tropics. First, is a Saharan dust cloud that brings us a hazy gray sky by the weekend, and second is a tropical wave on the southern edge of that dust cloud that could develop once it gets into the western Caribbean and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Formation odds during the next 7 days is 20%.
While tropical development will be suppressed by a large cloud of Saharan dust, there is still a small chance a tropical wave could develop into something more on the fringes of that dust cloud. The National Hurricane Center is now giving a tropical wave approaching the Caribbean Sea a low chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm as it crosses the Western Caribbean and/or Southwest Gulf of Mexico.
The tropical low we've been monitoring over northeast Mexico has pushed inland and will remain a heavy rainmaker over the next day or two. Tropical development is not expected elsewhere in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific over the next week. However, a large dust cloud over the Caribbean will make its way into the Gulf and could move into southeast Texas over the weekend. Although concentrations of the dust are not particularly heavy at this time, we'll need to monitor any air quality issues it could cause.
You may notice the sky appear "milkier" or "hazy gray" which could make sunrises and sunsets more colorful. Saharan dust will also limit thunderstorm development.
Our potential tropical system in the western Gulf is down to a 40% chance of development over the next 2 days, and is quickly running out of time to get it's act together over water before it moves into Mexico and dissipates. Regardless of whether this becomes a named system or not, the impact to us in Southeast Texas is slim-to-none, as this low pressure has a much tighter wind field that doesn't extend as far in to Texas as Alberto did.
We're still seeing some impacts from Alberto with elevated coastal flooding and a high rip current risk at our local beaches.
We are also monitoring another low in the southern Gulf that looks to follow in Albert's footsteps. While this system is similar to Alberto in many ways, including an eventual path into Mexico, it is a much smaller system, so the impacts here in Southeast Texas will be negligible.
We continue to monitor an area of disturbed weather that will move into the Bay of Campeche this weekend into next week. Another tropical low could spin up in nearly the same spot Alberto did. Right now there is a 60% chance of development over the next 7 days, but it could send more rain toward Texas, especially South Texas.
There is also another area off the coast of Florida near the Bahamas we're monitoring for development too. It has a 50% chance of development this weekend.
Alberto made landfall near Tampico, Mexico Thursday morning and is now a tropical depression over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Alberto's winds, rains and enhanced tides extend well north of the center and will continue to have impacts on southeast Texas coastal communities until Thursday evening.
We will also be watching the Bay of Campeche this weekend into next week as another tropical low spins up in nearly the same spot Alberto did. Right now there is a 50% chance of development over the next 7 days, but it could send more rain toward Texas, especially South Texas. There is also another area off the coast of Florida near the Bahamas we're monitoring for development too.
Potential Storm One is now classified as Tropical Storm Alberto. The NHC has been able to find a well defined center of circulation which is why it is now getting classified as a tropical storm. It is expected to jog west making landfall in Mexico late tonight into Thursday morning as a tropical storm. The naming of this storm does not change the impacts we are feeling here in Southeast Texas. We are still going to be looking at rainbands moving through parts of SE Texas today and coastal flooding caused by the large wind field generated by Alberto.
This weekend we'll also be watching as another tropical low could try to spin up again over the Bay of Campeche. Right now, it looks like that disturbance would mainly stay in the southern Gulf but it could send moisture our way early next week resulting in a chance for rain for SE Texas.
Potential Storm One still has not organized enough to be designated a tropical storm as it is crossing the Bay of Campeche, and time is running out for it to do so before making a landfall along the northeast coast of Mexico late Wednesday night. Regardless of whether it becomes Alberto or not, the storm will bring wind and heavy rain in northeastern Mexico and up into Texas.
We are also monitoring the same area again for this weekend, as the NHC has designated a low chance for a second system to try to organize in that area.
There is also still a low chance for development north of the Bahamas over the next few days, with the risk extending to the Southeast U.S. coast.
A broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche has been designated as Potential Storm One. It is expected to intensify into Tropical Storm Alberto by Wednesday. It is currently heading north but should make a westerly turn toward Mexico on Wednesday. It is expected to make landfall in Mexico as a tropical storm Thursday morning. This is a very large system so we could potentially see tropical storm force winds as far north as Port O' Connor. Our main impact here in Southeast Texas will be from the moisture getting pushed this way around this system, leading to rounds of heavy rainfall. Street flooding and coastal tide flooding are the biggest concerns.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing forecasts for Potential Storm One in the southwest Gulf. It is predicted to become Tropical Storm Alberto. This is an unusually large tropical circulation, so even with the center going into Mexico, the Tropical Storm Watch extends all the way north to the waters offshore from Galveston Island. Torrential tropical downpours are likely to move into Southeast Texas starting Tuesday night and continue through most of Wednesday. Significant street flooding and moderate coastal flooding are likely. A Flood Watch starts at 7 p.m. Tuesday and continues to 1 a.m. Wednesday. ABC13 Weather Alert Days continue for Tuesday and Wednesday.
All attention is focused on the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico where there is a 70 percent chance for tropical development. If this system strengthens to a Tropical Storm, it will be named Alberto. Regardless of development, an influx of deep tropical moisture from this system will impact parts of Texas and Louisiana starting Monday through Wednesday. The core of this system will likely move into Mexico by Wednesday, but the heavy rains will extend throughout coastal Texas. While rainfall totals in our area are far from set in stone, we currently expect 3-5 inches of rain in the I-10 corridor, with 5-8+ inches possible along the coast.
A large area of showers and storms currently over the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche where conditions are favorable for tropical development. That being said, there is now a 50 percent chance for development over the next 48 hours and 70 percent chance for a tropical depression to form in the next 7 days. This is the tropical system that will send torrential tropical rains to Southeast Texas beginning Monday and lasting through Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday are ABC13 Weather Alert Days now with the potential for street and urban flooding, potentially flash flooding too. This is as that swirling area of thunderstorms could organize and become Alberto, the first named storm of the season, this week in the Gulf. Tonight NOAA's Hurricane Hunters have release plans to fly to the Bay of Campeche this week to investigate the potential tropical system.
Elsewhere in the tropics, there is still a 30 percent chance for development off the east coast of Florida near the Bahamas. A tropical wave will bring heavy rains to Florida and potentially New Orleans later this week as it moves from east to west.
Development chances for our tropical low in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are currently at 60%. Regardless of whether this becomes a named storm or not, our impacts will largely be the same. Our concern in Southeast Texas comes from deep tropical moisture streaming in Monday through Thursday, increasing the potential for flooding, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.
The core of this system will likely move into Mexico by Wednesday, but the heavy rains will extend throughout coastal Texas. While rainfall totals in our area are far from set in stone, we currently expect 3-5 inches of rain in the I-10 corridor, with 5-8+ inches possible along the coast.
The National Hurricane Center increased odds for development n the Bay of Campeche to 60% tonight. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two and could make a slow trek north towards Texas. While any kind of named development or landfall is still unclear, those kinds of impacts are not expected at this point for Southeast Texas. Regardless, potentially three days of rounds of tropical rains is expected Monday through Wednesday of next week. Street and low-lying area flooding is possible with these showers across the region. For the coastline, coastal flooding as well as high tides and strong rip currents are expected all of next week as this system spins to the south.
Additionally, there is a new area of potential development off the east coast of Florida and over the Bahamas. There's a 20 percent chance for development there. Regardless, this tropical wave could send more heavy rains to Florida, a state that already got walloped by heavy rains last week.
The odds of development on a potential storm in the Southern Gulf of Mexico remain at 50%, but regardless of any development we can expect impacts here in Southeast Texas. Heavy rains capable of street flooding, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are possible Monday through Thursday. While the likely outcome is that the center of circulation moves west into Mexico, the surge of deeper tropical moisture could bring 3-6 inches of rain or more to parts of southeast Texas. We have Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday as ABC13 Weather Watch days.
The National Hurricane Center holds the tropical development odds at 50% for the tropical low expected to spin up over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding still look likely along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, uncertainty remains on the exact impacts for Texas. Our most likely scenario remains that the low slides west into Mexico, keeping the significant flooding rains over Mexico and South Texas. If the low forms farther north than we are expecting, then a pathway toward South Texas is possible, which would increase our rain chances and amounts. We are keeping you on "Weather Watch" for now on Monday through Wednesday when the majority of local impacts are expected to occur.
We are monitoring an area of disturbed weather for potential tropical development in the southwest Gulf of Mexico over the Bay of Campeche for early next week. The National Hurricane Center has given this area a 50% chance of development over the next 7 days. While the core of the system will likely drift west into Mexico, tropical moisture from that system is expected to move into Texas after Father's Day, increasing our chances for heavy rainfall and street flooding. There will also be a steady current of strong southeasterly winds that will likely lead to dangerous rip currents, high seas, and minor coastal flooding. We've now got you on "Weather Watch" Monday through Wednesday when we expect the majority of our local impacts from this tropical weather system.
The National Hurricane Center holds the tropical development odds at 40% for the tropical low expected to spin up over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are looking like along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, there is still some uncertainty on the exact impacts for Texas. Interestingly, an AI version of one of our main tropical computer models is trending toward a track into South Texas. Watch this evening's tropical update video for a deeper discussion on that development. While we await more certainty, we've put you on "Weather Watch" for now on Monday through Wednesday when the majority of local impacts are expected to occur.
Tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico has increased to 40% over the next 7 days. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are looking like along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, there is still some uncertainty on the exact impacts for Texas. For now, prepare for the possibility of torrential tropical downpours returning to Southeast Texas Monday through Wednesday of next week.
The odds of tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico have increased to 30% over the next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains, strong rip currents, and minor coastal flooding are looking like along Texas beaches. Because the low pressure has not yet developed, there is still some uncertainty on the exact impacts for Texas. For now, prepare for the possibility of torrential tropical downpours returning to Southeast Texas Monday through Wednesday of next week.
Monitoring two areas of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. Formation odds remain low for both. A broad area of low pressure near the Gulf coast of Florida is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This is system is expected to move off the Southeast coast later this week.
There is also an area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that needs to be watched for potential development. Regardless of development, deep tropical moisture could move into Texas after Father's Day, increasing our chances for heavy rainfall and gusty winds early next week.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is expected to move northeast toward Florida during the next day or so and offshore of the U.S. Southeast coast later this week. Slow development is possible over the next 7 days, but the probability remains low at 20%. Regardless of development heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Florida during the next few days.
We are also monitoring the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next several days as it is possible a tropical low may try to spin up and that tropical moisture could move into Texas after Father's Day, increasing our chances for heavy rainfall.
No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins over the next week. In the next 6-12 days we'll be watching for a tropical low to bring in deep tropical moisture into the Gulf, but as of now it's just a potential system that we are keeping an eye on. The average date of the first named storm in the Atlantic is June 20th.
No tropical development is expected over the next 7 days. We are keeping on our eyes on the potential for some broad low pressure to develop late next week in the gulf, which will spread deeper tropical moisture into Florida, but shouldn't impact our weather over the next week. Beyond that we'll monitor to see if any of that deeper tropical moisture makes it here into Southeast Texas as we move into the week after Father's Day.
There remains no immediate threat of any tropical troubles, with no development expected in the Atlantic Basin over the next 7 days. In the next 8-14 days we'll be watching for a tropical low to bring in deep tropical moisture into the Gulf, but as of now it's just a potential system that we are keeping an eye on.
In the short term (through this weekend and into next week), there are no tropical systems with no development expected.
In the longer-term (mid-to-late June) we are keeping an eye on the southern Gulf and western Caribbean for potential development.
The tropics remain quiet for now and tropical development is not expected through the weekend.
The Climate Prediction Center has highlighted an area over the western Caribbean, or southeast Gulf of Mexico for tropical development between June 12-15. Tropical development will be possible in this area due to low wind shear and record warm waters over the Caribbean and Gulf. We'll be watching it closely.
The Atlantic Basin remains quiet and no tropical formation is expected over the next 7 days.
No tropical development expected over the next 7 days as another dust cloud moves off the coast of Africa.
There are no tropical threats across the Gulf of Mexico, or across the Atlantic Basin for the next 7 days.
In the eastern Pacific, a weak area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions do not appear favorable for significant tropical development, and the system is expected to weaken during the next day or so.
Hurricane season is starting off on a quiet note. No development is expected in the Atlantic Basin over the next 7 days. With record warm waters and low wind-shear, it won't stay quiet for long.
June 1st marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season. There are no major threats across the Gulf of Mexico, or across the Atlantic Basin for the next 7 days. Widespread dust moving off the coast of Africa will also limit tropical development.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its highest-on record hurricane forecast for the 2024 hurricane season. But when it comes to life along the Texas Gulf Coast, ABC13 meteorologists explain exactly what Houston-area residents need to know to plan ahead, and protect their families.
All categories of storms are expected to exceed the typical number seen every year, National Weather Service forecasters announced Thursday in a news conference for the 2024 hurricane outlook.
NOAA scientists predict between 17 and 25 named storms, compared to an average of 14; between eight and 13 hurricanes, compared to an average of seven; and between four and seven major hurricanes, compared to an average of three.
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Houston
Harris County
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During hurricane season, remain prepared and make sure you download our ABC13 Houston app!
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